Watsho uAbdullah

Uqoqosho lwaseVietnam lolona lwe-44 ngobukhulu kwihlabathi kwaye ukusukela phakathi kwiminyaka yoo-1980 iVietnam yenze utshintsho olukhulu ukusuka kuqoqosho olukwindawo esembindini ngenkxaso evela kuqoqosho olusekwe kwimarike evulekileyo.

Ayimangalisi into yokuba, ikwalelolona likhula ngokukhawuleza kuqoqosho lwehlabathi, elinokukhula kwe-GDP yonyaka emalunga ne-5.1%, nto leyo enokwenza uqoqosho lwayo lube kwindawo yama-20 ngobukhulu emhlabeni ngo-2050.

Sele ndiyithethile loo nto, igama elimnandi kwihlabathi lelokuba iVietnam ikulungele ukuba yenye yezona ndawo zinkulu zemveliso enokuthi ithathe indawo yaseTshayina ngamanyathelo ayo amakhulu kwezoqoqosho.

Ngokucacileyo, iVietnam iyakhula njengendawo yokwenziwa kwemveliso kulo mmandla, ikakhulu kumacandelo afana nempahla yelaphu kunye nezihlangu kunye necandelo lombane.

Kwelinye icala, ukusukela ngeminyaka yee-'80s iChina ibidlala indima yomzimveliso wehlabathi jikelele ngezinto zayo ezinkulu, amandla okusebenza kunye nomthamo wemizi-mveliso.Uphuhliso lwemizi-mveliso lunikwe ingqwalasela enkulu apho ukwakhiwa koomatshini kunye nemizi-mveliso yesinyithi ifumene eyona nto iphambili.

Ngobudlelwane phakathi kweWashington neBeijing ngokukhululeka, ikamva lamatyathanga obonelelo lwehlabathi lincinci.Nangona imiyalezo ye-White House engalindelekanga iqhubeka iphakamisa imibuzo malunga nesikhokelo somgaqo-nkqubo wezorhwebo wase-US, iirhafu zemfazwe zorhwebo zihlala zisebenza.

Ngeli xesha, ukusilela kumthetho ocetywayo wezokhuseleko wesizwe waseBeijing, osongela ukunyanzela ukuzimela kweHong Kong, kubeka emngciphekweni isigaba sokuqala sesivumelwano sorhwebo phakathi kwala magunya mabini.Singasathethi ke ngokunyuka kweendleko zabasebenzi kuthetha ukuba i-China iya kulandela ishishini eliphantsi kakhulu elinomsebenzi ophezulu.

Obu burhabaxa, budityaniswe nogqatso lokukhusela izixhobo zonyango kunye nokuphuhlisa isitofu sokugonya i-COVID-19, kuvuselela ukuphononongwa kwakhona kwamakhonkco obonelelo angexesha anelungelo lokuphumelela ngaphezu kwayo yonke enye into.

Ngaxeshanye, ukuphathwa kwe-COVID-19 yi-China kubangele imibuzo emininzi phakathi kwamagunya asentshona.Ngelixa, iVietnam lelinye lamazwe aphambili ukwenza lula amanyathelo okuncitshiswa kwentlalo kwaye iphinde ivule uluntu lwayo kwangoko ngo-Epreli ka-2020, apho uninzi lwamazwe luqala ukujongana nobunzima kunye nokusasazeka kwe-COVID-19.

Umhlaba wothukile yimpumelelo yeVietnam ngexesha lo bhubhani we-COVID-19.

Ithemba laseVietnam njengendawo yokuvelisa

Ngokuchasene nale meko iqhubekayo yehlabathi, ukunyuka koqoqosho lwase-Asia - iVietnam - ikulungele ukuba yindawo elandelayo yokwenza amandla.

IVietnam yenze imizimba yenyama njengombangi onamandla wokubamba isabelo esikhulu kwihlabathi le-post-COVID-19.

Ngokwe-Kearney US Reshoring Index, ethelekisa imveliso yase-US kwimveliso yayo evela kumazwe ali-14 aseAsia, inyuke yaya kuthi ga kwirekhodi ephezulu ngo-2019, ngenxa yokwehla kwe-17% yokungeniswa kweTshayina.

I-American Chamber of Commerce eMzantsi China nayo yafumanisa ukuba i-64% yeenkampani zase-US ezisezantsi kweli lizwe zicinga ukuhambisa imveliso kwenye indawo, ngokwengxelo ephakathi.

Uqoqosho lwaseVietnam lukhule nge-8% ngo-2019, luncediswa kukunyuka kokuthumela ngaphandle.Kwakhona kulindeleke ukuba ikhule nge-1.5% kulo nyaka.

Ingqikelelo yeBhanki yeHlabathi kweyona meko imbi ye-COVID-19 yokuba i-GDP yaseVietnam iya kuhla iye kuthi ga kwi-1.5% kulo nyaka, nto leyo ingcono kunoninzi lwabamelwane bayo baseMzantsi Asia.

Ngaphandle koko, kunye nokudityaniswa kokusebenza nzima, uphawu lwelizwe, kunye nokudala iimeko ezifanelekileyo zotyalo-mali, iVietnam itsale iinkampani zangaphandle / utyalo-mali, inika abavelisi ukufikelela kwindawo yorhwebo yasimahla ye-ASEAN kunye nezivumelwano zorhwebo ezikhethekileyo kunye namazwe kulo lonke elase-Asiya kunye ne-European Union, ngokunjalo eusa.

Singasathethi ke, kutsha nje ilizwe liye lomeleza imveliso yezixhobo zonyango kwaye lenza iminikelo enxulumene ne-COVID-19 kumazwe achaphazelekayo, kunye ne-USA, iRussia, iSpain, i-Itali, iFransi, iJamani kunye ne-UK.

Olunye uphuhliso olutsha olubalulekileyo kukuba kungenzeka ukuba imveliso yeenkampani zase-US zihambe zisuka e-China zisiya eVietnam.Kwaye isahlulo saseVietnam sokungeniswa kwempahla evela e-US siye safumana inzuzo njengoko isahlulo se-China kwimarike sityibilika – ilizwe lade ladlula i-China laze labeka elona shishini liphezulu lempahla e-US ngoMatshi nango-Epreli walo nyaka.

Idatha yorhwebo lwentengiso yase-US ka-2019 ibonisa le meko, ukuthunyelwa kweVietnam iyonke e-USA kunyuke nge-35%, okanye i-17.5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.

Kule minyaka ingamashumi amabini idlulileyo, ilizwe belisenza inguqu emandla ukuze libonelele kuluhlu olubanzi lwamashishini.IVietnam iye yashenxa kuqoqosho lwayo ubukhulu becala yezolimo ukuze iphuhlise uqoqosho olusekwe kwimarike nolugxile kushishino.

Bottleneck ukuba ukoyisa

Kodwa zininzi izithintelo ekufuneka kujongwane nazo ukuba ilizwe lifuna ukubambisana neTshayina.

Umzekelo, ubume beVietnam boshishino lwemveliso olusekwe kwixabiso eliphantsi lubeka isoyikiso esinokubakho – ukuba ilizwe alinyuki kwikhonkco lexabiso, amanye amazwe kummandla anjengeBangladesh, iThailand okanye iKhambodiya nawo abonelela ngabasebenzi abaphantsi.

Ukongeza, ngeenzame zikarhulumente zokuzisa utyalo-mali olongezelelekileyo kwimveliso ye-hi-tech kunye neziseko ezingundoqo ukuze zihambelane ngakumbi nekhonkco lobonelelo lwehlabathi, kuphela yinkampani enyiniweyo yamazwe ngamazwe (MNCs) enemisebenzi yophando kunye nophuhliso olunyiniweyo (R&D) eVietnam.

Ubhubhani we-COVID-19 ukwabhentsise ukuba iVietnam ixhomekeke kakhulu ekungenweni kwemathiriyeli ekrwada kwaye idlala kuphela indima yokuvelisa kunye nokudibanisa iimveliso ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.Ngaphandle komzi mveliso wenkxaso obuyela ngasemva, iya kuba liphupha elinqwenelekayo ukuhlangabezana nobukhulu bemveliso efana neTshayina.

Ngaphandle kwezi, ezinye izithintelo ziquka ubungakanani bequla labasebenzi, ukufikeleleka kwabasebenzi abanezakhono, amandla okusingatha ukuthululwa kwequbuliso kwimfuno yemveliso, kunye nezinye ezininzi.

Elinye ibala elibalulekileyo lishishini laseVietnam elincinci, elincinci naphakathi (ii-MSMEs) - ezibandakanya i-93.7% yeshishini lilonke - lithintelwe kwiimarike ezincinci kwaye azikwazi ukwandisa imisebenzi yazo kubaphulaphuli ababanzi.Ukwenza ukuba ibe yindawo yokukrwitsha enzima ngamaxesha eengxaki, njengobhubhani we-COVID-19.

Ke ngoko, kubalulekile ukuba amashishini athathe inyathelo elibuyela umva kwaye aphinde athathele ingqalelo isicwangciso-qhinga sawo sokubeka ngokutsha - kuba ilizwe liseneemayile ezininzi ukufikelela kwisantya saseTshayina, ingaba kuya kuba sengqiqweni na ngakumbi ukuya kwi-'China-plus-one' iqhinga endaweni?